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Day 3: Ecological Modeling -- Wednesday 23 July 2025 14:00-18:00 UTC
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14:00-14:45 UTC - Keynote: Acceleration of global lake anoxia under climate change
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Lipa Nkwalale (Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research)
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Lake ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are experiencing detrimental changes with the progression of climate change. Global simulations project rising surface water temperatures and prolonged summer stratifications,
but ecosystem and water quality projections are lacking. A key factor in lake ecosystem health is hypolimnion oxygen (O2) levels. We use a multi-model ensemble (three lake models driven by five climate models) to
simulate thermal dynamics (2015–2099) for 73 globally representative individual lakes under three climate scenarios. We use the output variables to model O2 depletion and project future hypolimnion O2 concentrations.
While trophic level generally influences anoxia risk, with oligotrophic lakes (35%) being less vulnerable than eutrophic lakes (96%) in the last decade under the pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenario, climate-induced changes
progressively drive lakes into O2 loss and corresponding habitat degradation. If climate warming cannot be halted, reducing nutrient inputs is required for sustaining healthy O2 conditions in lakes.
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A live stream of the pre-recorded keynote will begin at 14:00 UTC, followed immediately by a live Question and Answer session with the speaker.
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14:45-15:00 UTC - Break
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15:00-17:00 UTC - Workshop: Building and Running an Aquatic Ecosystem Model Ensemble in R
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Tadhg Moore (LimnoTrack)
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This workshop will guide participants through the process of setting up and running an aquatic ecosystem model ensemble in R, covering data requirements, handling missing data, and implementing one-dimensional lake models. Participants will gain hands-on experience with model setup, execution, and customization for new lakes, using R-based coding.
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This workshop will be live.
Links to the workshop material will be posted here.
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17:00-18:00 UTC Breakout/Working Groups Sessions
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A traditional part of AEMON-J meetings in the past has been to openly discuss ideas for new, joint projects.
This time in the schedule is to bring up such ideas, perhaps inspired by the workshops earlier that day, and discuss.
If no such ideas are pitched, this time can also be used for small talk, networking, and other social activities.
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